Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
